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HenchPAC NewsREPRESENTATIVE Rick Lazio's chances to become Senator Rick Lazio rose quite a bit with last week's exchange of Hillary attacks and his effective rebuttals. Having learned from Bill Bradley's and John McCain's failure to answer their opponents' attacks, Lazio seems to be handling Hillary just right in the early going.
Until the first negative ads fly, a campaign really hasn't started. Once they do air, the most important question is: How well does the candidate parry his opponents' jabs and counterpunch? Lazio's ads show he's got the formula just right.
To defeat Lazio, Hillary has to besmirch him. Recent polls have the race tied at 42 percent each - not good news for the first lady. With her universal name recognition, anyone who is not voting for Hillary is, at this point, tending to vote against her. To be undecided at this juncture is really to say that one is not happy with her and wants to explore other alternatives. Thus, a 42-42 tie really means that she is losing, 42 to 58.
But people can vote four ways in an election, as media guru Tony Schwartz points out: for Hillary, against Hillary, for Lazio or against Lazio. The pro-Hillary vote seems to have maxed out at 42 percent. Her job is to build up the anti-Lazio vote to produce the remaining 9 points she needs to win. Thus, her need to go negative.
If Lazio can parry and counterpunch as Hillary throws negatives, he could really, really end up winning this race. So far, he's doing it quite nicely.
Hillary opened the bidding a week ago with her first negative ads, two 15-second commercials that said Lazio opposed the Patients' Bill of Rights and the extension of hate-crime protection to gays.
Few people know much about Lazio, so he had to answer these attacks immediately. He did. More important, he had to answer them in few words and go over to the offensive in the rebuttal ad. He did that, too.
Lazio's rebuttal had to make Hillary pay a price for her running negatives. Gradually, this price needs to build up to the point where she can't throw any more mud without inflicting more damage on herself than she does on her adversary.
Lazio came through perfectly. Guided by his excellent media adviser, Michael Murphy, he replied with just the right mixture of rebuttal and counterpunch.
He began his ad with a hit at the first lady for going negative. "I've been in the Senate campaign for about a month now, and guess what? Hillary Clinton has already started running attack ads designed to fool you about me," the ad begins. Then the rebuttal: short, precise, and sweet, just as it should be. "Her ads are simply untrue. I voted for a Patients' Bill of Rights, and I oppose hate crimes."
But Lazio-Murphy don't leave it there. They use the rest of the time in this 30-second spot for an effective counterpunch: "So why is she doing this?" the ad continues. "Because it's a lot easier for Mrs. Clinton to attack me than to name a single thing she has ever done for New York.
"So, Mrs. Clinton, you can run the negative campaign about tearing people down. I'm going to run a campaign about building New York up."
Beautiful. Notice how he calls her Mrs. Clinton, hanging Bill around Hillary's neck? Note the dig about carpetbagging? See how he mentions New York as often as possible? A great ad.
Late last week, Hillary continued her attack with an ad by Ed Koch. "I like Rick Lazio," Koch begins with a touch of hypocrisy, "but I am not voting for him. He's wrong on too many issues." Then come three new negatives: "He opposes licensing and registration of handguns ... He's not really pro-choice because he won't support funding abortion for poor women ... and he was willing to run on the Independence line with Pat Buchanan."
Then, when Lazio ran his rebuttal, Hillary had Koch cut a new ending saying that her opponent wasn't "really for the Patients' Bill of Rights, because he voted against the right to sue your HMO."
How will Lazio answer? Here's how he should:
"Now Hillary trots out Ed Koch to do her negative ads for her so she won't have to get her own hands dirty. But Hillary gave Koch bad information. I back gun control. I supported the Brady Bill and the assault-weapon ban. I'm pro-choice and always have been. I support your right to sue your HMO.
"You know, if Hillary gets to the Senate, she's going to have to stand up on her own. She won't have Koch to hide behind. Hillary: When New Yorkers have something to say, they have the guts to say it themselves. That's how we do things back east."
Follow this chess match closely, move and counter-move. Keep out your scorecard. It is how this election will be decided.
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